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Market Commentary

Off to Vacation!


Posted on June 8, 2017

Folks, my commentary will be absent for the next two weeks as I head to NAFCU's Annual conference in Hawaii. Rough, I know, but I was asked again to be part of the CU Economics Group panel speaking on Thursday, so who am I to say no! So if you are attending, stop by and say hello. Given I am going this far to speak on a panel for about, I don't know, 15 minutes, my wife and I are making it more of a vacation. Also, as a bonus before we leave, The Brother-in-law will be visiting this coming weekend for my son's HS graduation. No worries, septic has been pumped and plunger is ready to go!! Bottom-line: I should have some good stories to add to my highlights when I get back! Aloha!

Good morning!

  • As I said yesterday, the market is focusing on the Comey testimony today beginning at 10am
    • o The prepared remarks were released yesterday
    • o Nothing new in the release, so we'll see how Q&A goes today
  • • If nothing substantial comes out of the Comey hearings (and you know with all of the buildup the last few weeks, nothing probably will), then the markets settle back down into their hole and wait for next week when the Fed (most likely) raises rates and provides more information during their press conference on what to expect next
  • Just this morning, the European Central Bank (ECB) removed a reference to the possibility of it lowering interest rates in its regular monetary policy statement, while leaving its key interest rates unchanged
    • o The move suggests some confidence that the eurozone's recovery is strong enough to lift inflation closer to the central bank's medium-term target of just below 2%
  • Reuters also reported yesterday that the BOJ may upgrade its economic assessment at the June meeting
  • • Yesterday
    • o Consumer credit growth was below expectations in April, although upward revisions to March offset some of the slowdown
      • • On a year-ago basis, revolving and non-revolving credit are growing at about the same pace
  • • In other news:
  • • Oil and gold little changed
    • o Oil inventories unexpectedly rose for the first time in 9 weeks in the week ended June 2nd
    • o Crude oil inventories rose 3.3mn barrels vs. a consensus expectation of a 3.13mn barrel decline
  • • Treasuries
    • o 2-yr: 1.32%
    • o 10-yr: 2.19%
    • o 30-yr: 2.85%
  • • LIBOR keeps trickling higher in anticipation of a Fed move in a couple of weeks
    • o 1-month: 1.10%
    • o 3-month: 1.22%
  • • Fed funds effective was 0.91%

Have a great day!

Fred

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